The 2011 Tornado Outbreak (so far)

First and foremost, I will say that I am not one to ride the so-called "Climate Change Train," attributing nearly every extreme weather phenomenon to anthropogenic warming...so I'll try to steer clear of that talk and simply say this: While humans are definitely having some sort of effect on climate, the extent to which it's occurring is unknown, and anyone who positively and scientifically attributes humans to significant global warming (and thus, our recent severe weather) needs some more facts.

The tornado outbreak of 2011 has been fascinating for both weather fanatics and the general population alike. Preliminary reports from the National Weather Service has the United States at a little bit over 1400 tornadoes for the year so far. That's already higher than the total for 2010, and we're only halfway through this year. With all this dangerous weather, many wonder why this is happening. It can't just all be a coincidence, can it?

Well, no it can't...there's a reason behind all of this rhyme: the combination of a weakening La Nina (causing a more intense jet stream), and warmer (~1 to 2 degrees) than normal Gulf of Mexico waters. In short, what is happening is this "weakening" La Nina weather pattern is causing the jet stream to dip farther south than normal, nearly reaching the Gulf of Mexico and it's abnormally warm waters. Low pressure systems are developing in the Plains states (near where this "dip" in the jet stream takes place). Colder Canadian air trails these low pressure systems, while warm, humid air from the Gulf is ahead. This essential mixture of cold, drier air and warm, moist air creates instability, a measure of the volatility of the atmosphere. When instability is high, severe storms are more apt to develop, and, thus, tornadoes as a result.

St. Louis, MO. Raleigh, NC. Tuscaloosa, AL. Joplin, MO. Springfield, MA. These are just a few of the places we have seen this Spring get hit with very strong tornadoes. While the footage may be awesome to see, we have to realize the power of these phenomena. We need to understand that while we may enjoy watching a 3-4 minute clip of a EF-4 tornado ripping through debris, people's lives are at stake. Learning more about how tornadoes form and predicting where they will form will hopefully save many lives in years to come.